The Fed pivot and what it means for EUR/USD

Markets don't trade the news — they trade the surprise relative to what was already priced. With the Fed, that means the path of expected cuts matters far more than any single decision. As the implied path softens, the dollar tends to give ground, and EUR/USD becomes a clean expression of that shift.

It's the differential, not the headline

The euro-dollar exchange rate is, at its core, a story about relative monetary policy. When the gap between expected US and European rates narrows, capital that was parked in dollars for yield has less reason to stay. The move is rarely about a single meeting; it's about the trajectory the market builds around it.

The levels that matter

Into the next print, 1.09 is the line in the sand. A sustained break above it — confirmed on a higher timeframe — would suggest the repricing has legs. Failure there, and the pair drifts back into range. The desk treats the first reaction as noise and the second move as signal.

How we're positioned

Rather than pre-position into binary risk, the approach is to let the level confirm: lighter size into the event, scaling in on a clean break with a defined invalidation. Raw spreads and sub-12ms fills matter most precisely in these windows, when liquidity thins and slippage punishes hesitation.